How SquatchyPicks works
The data, models, and methods behind everything on this site — the game predictions (every spread, total, and bet) and the fantasy draft advisor (every rank, adjustment, and pick recommendation).
Game Predictions
From a one-page overview of the prediction engine to the full handicapping reference series.
How Our Model Works
One-page tour of the full prediction pipeline — data, models, tuning, scoring.
Handicapping Series — Overview
Why this reference exists, and the five numbers to memorize.
1 · Bookmaking Fundamentals
How books set & move lines, the vig, sharp vs. square money, Closing Line Value.
2 · Predicting Spreads
Power ratings, Elo, key numbers (3 & 7), spread↔probability, QB & home field.
3 · Predicting Totals
Pace, points per drive, weather (wind is king), game script.
4 · Variable Catalog
Every predictive input ranked, with regression-to-the-mean caveats.
5 · Modeling Methods
Ridge ratings, walk-forward validation, calibration, market-aware blending.
6 · Betting Strategy & Bankroll
Edge identification, de-vigging, fractional Kelly, CLV.
7 · Where the Engine Stands
What shipped, what the honest measurements showed, and what's next.
8 · CLV & Odds Data
Closing Line Value: how we capture lines and grade every pick against the close.
Fantasy Drafting
How the draft advisor blends its sources, how news becomes point adjustments, and what the AI Guru does.
Fantasy Drafting — Overview
What the draft advisor blends, the three derived boards, and how league context reweights sources.
1 · Narratives & Point Adjustments
How headlines and depth charts become bounded, expiring point adjustments — the v2 rules.
2 · AI Guru & League Value
The Guru's two signals, league-value VOR, Pure FPPG, and the injury gate.
docs/handicapping/ and docs/fantasy/.
Educational / modeling reference — not betting advice.